Iran appoints the triumvirate that will lead the country until the election of Khamenei’s successor | International

The process to elect the Shiite cleric who will succeed Ali Khamenei has already begun in Iran, confirming that the Islamic Republic, the cornered political system that has ruled the country for the last 47 years, had foreseen the possibility that Israel and the United States They will kill their supreme leader86 years old. With his death already confirmed by Tehran, this is indicated by the speed with which it has been completed already in the early hours of this day the tripartite transitional power that has assumed the very broad functions of the deceased head of state until his successor is appointed. At least formally, given the complicated network of power in Iran and the difficult balance between the clerical establishment, the supreme leader’s clique, the security forces and the country’s elected institutions such as the presidency.

This triumvirate that makes up the so-called Leadership Council is made up of the president of the country, Masud Pezeshkián; the hard-line ultra-conservative head of the Judiciary, Gholamhossein Mohseni Ejei, and the Islamic jurist Alireza Arifí, the last to be appointed, whose appointment was announced today by the semi-official ISNA news agency.

The profile of the three members of this council almost allows us to rule out major changes in a regime in a state of war in which the powerful Iranian parallel army, the Revolutionary Guard, could increase its already important share of political power, or at least surely maintain it.

Of these three names, the least conservative is Pezeshkián, a charisma-free cardiac surgeon turned politician who is usually presented as a moderate in the West but who, in no case, has dared to oppose, at least publicly, Khamenei’s orders.

The head of the Iranian Judiciary, Gholamhossein Mohseni Ejei, is considered, for his part, a hawk of the most radical and ultra-conservative wing of the Islamic Republic, the most loyal to Khamenei. Both the European Union and the United States sanctioned him for his role in crushing demonstrations over electoral fraud in 2009 and he is believed to have also played a key role in the repression of the latest demonstrations against the regime in which at least 7,000 people died in January; 3,117, according to the official figure. His dismal human rights record includes, according to Amnesty International, participating in the massacres of thousands of imprisoned opponents in Iran in 1988. In January, he threatened protesters that “there would be no clemency” for them.

Less known in the West than the previous two, Arafí, 67, is a cleric who is believed to have been a close confidant of Khamenei. His loyalty to the deceased leader is also considered ironclad.

This is attested to by his position as vice president of the Assembly of Experts, the body that brings together 88 religious and that will elect Khamenei’s successor. Arafí has ​​also been a member of the powerful Council of Guardians, which has veto power over electoral candidates and laws approved by Parliament. He also holds the position of director of the network of Islamic seminaries in Iran.

By completing this tripartite power in a few hours, the Islamic Republic is trying to fill the power vacuum left by Khamenei, the leader who ruled Iran with an iron fist for 36 years and who does not have an officially elected successor, although it is believed that he nominated several possible candidates, already during the 12 days of Israeli bombing in June, to which the United States joined. Without any confirmation of their identities until now, what has been spread is mere speculation. Some of the names in those pools are unlikely candidates, such as Khamenei’s youngest son, Mojtaba, who was suggested as the leader’s successor, a perspective that would give the regime a hereditary air – as was the overthrown Pahlavi monarchy – something that, according to some sources, Khamenei himself disliked.

The name of Hassan Khomeini, grandson of the founder of the Islamic Republic, has also been mentioned on occasions, but, also in his case, this bet does not seem very plausible, given that he has shown relatively moderate positions.

In the hands of the leader

The task that awaits the tripartite power already designated in Iran will not be easy. They must try to obtain the consensus of “all influential political agents in Iran” before the Assembly of Experts, the body that must elect the new leader, decides between the candidates, emphasizes Rouzbeh Parsi, an expert on Iran and professor at Lund University, in Sweden.

The 88 clerics of the Assembly of Experts must demonstrate extensive knowledge of Islamic law. The Iranian Constitution provides that the new leader must necessarily be a man, since he must be a cleric – women are prohibited, not only from that position, but also from the presidency and the judiciary. That religious must demonstrate political competence, moral authority and, most importantly, loyalty to the Islamic Republic.

The process that is now being opened, who knows for how long, has only been carried out once since 1979, when the Islamic Republic was established. It was ten years later, when its founder, Ruhollah Khomeini, died and Khamenei, who did not initially have the high credentials As a clergyman who must have the supreme leader, he was hastily chosen.

The Israeli and American bombings, which continued with force this Sunday, also complicate the election of that successor. Any meeting, be it of the Assembly of Experts, or of the Leadership Council now in charge of running the country, could be an opportunity for Israel and the United States to bomb and kill provosts of the regime, given the high degree of infiltration of Israeli intelligence in Iran that was evident on Saturday with the death of Khamenei.

Nor can we expect that, at least a priori, the profile of the new leader will be groundbreaking or even especially moderate or progressive. The Constitution of the Islamic Republic is designed in such a way that the living supreme leader has a decisive influence on the selection of his successor.

This influence is protected through the mechanism of election of the 88 clerics of the Assembly of Experts, who must pass the prior screening of the Council of Guardians, made up of 12 jurists. Of them, six are appointed directly by the leader, while the other half are chosen by Parliament, but from a list of candidates previously selected by the head of the judiciary. That position is also appointed directly by the supreme leader, who thus directly or indirectly controls all members of the Council. Furthermore, only the six jurists of that Council of Guardians appointed by the leader – in this case by the late Khamenei – can approve the cleric candidates for the Assembly of Experts.

The power of the pasdaran

This circular structure in the hands of the leader almost completely shields the political system from significant changes. Another institution that will play a decisive role in the appointment of the leader is the Islamic Revolutionary Guard (IRGC), the powerful parallel army (and security and paramilitary force), which is also “the largest economic cartel of the Islamic Republic” – it controls between 20% and 30% of key sectors of the economy, such as real estate or oil smuggling – and “has all the necessary tools to influence the Assembly of Experts and manage to the few members who do not align with the majority,” read a 2024 Middle East Institute report.

That text underlined a key aspect that was evident in the absence of cracks in the Iranian security apparatus during the repression of the latest protests against the regime: “the total harmony” of the commanders of that force with Khamenei, in part because “it is difficult to identify a State institution that has benefited the most” from the policies of the late supreme leader.

The Pezeshkián-Ejei-Arafí triumvirate will also have to interact with some figures who are considered to have a lot to say in the succession process. The most relevant is Ali Larijani, secretary of the National Security Councilconsidered as one of the possible bridges between the security apparatus and political managers. His career marked by political opportunism and his comings and goings between the conservative and moderate camps, make him a valuable piece on the board.

Larijani, confirms Rouzbeh Parsi, is “a rising figure” within the regime. According to six Iranian sources cited by The New York TimesIn early January, Khamenei tasked this senior security official with overseeing a possible war with the United States and, if necessary, his succession.

The Islamic Republic, Parsi recalls, “is an oligarchy,” not a mere mafia that depends only on “an ayatollah,” even if the figure of the leader is very important. The elites who will ultimately decide Iran’s new supreme leader – who will be formally chosen by the Assembly of Experts – “are composed of overlapping circles of power actors” in which “every cog is replaceable,” the expert maintains.

That is provided that the current Iranian political system survives an Israeli and American military aggression whose objective is now to overthrow it.

“If the Islamic Republic does not survive in its current form, it can survive in another form,” Vali Nasr, a professor at Johns Hopskins University, points out from Washington. “There is no easy alternative to the Islamic Republic. There is no political party or organization in Iran that can take over from day one,” highlights this expert who was an advisor to the United States Department of State.

Nasr therefore believes that, even if the Islamic Republic collapses, “it is most likely that an internal government, that is, some of its elements, some coalition, will have to take over. Otherwise, there will be total anarchy in the country, as happened, for example, in Libya.”