image source, Anadolu via Getty Images
By attacking Iran and killing the top leader of the country’s regime, US President Donald Trump made a huge gamble. He believes he can reshape the Middle East by using US military power where previous presidents have failed.
If the US can use air power alone to completely destroy Iran’s nuclear program and bring about regime change in Tehran, Trump will claim it as a landmark victory. However, there is no clear plan of Washington regarding the post-Islamic Republic situation in Iran.
But if the campaign in Iran, dubbed ‘Operation Epic Fury’ by the Pentagon, fails or escalates into a larger regional conflict that drags on long-term US involvement, Trump’s legacy could be damaged. At the same time, the chances of Republicans retaining control of Congress in November’s midterm elections may also decrease.
In announcing the start of military operations in Iran early Saturday morning, the president showed just how much is at stake in the move.
“We can lose American heroes,” Trump said. His argument is that the price hike is necessary to put pressure on the regime that has spread unrest across the Middle East since seizing power in 1979.
“For 47 years, Iran’s regime has been chanting ‘Death to America,'” Trump said. He later added, “We will not tolerate this anymore”.
But while the world’s eyes are on what the Iranian regime does after the supreme leader’s death, it remains unclear whether Trump can avoid a prolonged military campaign.
Another question is, will he be able to convince the American people, especially his ‘MAGA’ or Make America Great Again supporters, who are generally opposed to US intervention abroad, to support another military intervention in the Middle East?
image source, Reuters
It’s a turning point for Trump, as he returned to office a little more than a year and a half ago with a promise to end so-called “perpetual wars” like Afghanistan and Iraq. But his administration has carried out military operations in several other countries, including Iran, Venezuela and Syria.
The White House had previously warned that an attack would be launched if the Iranian regime did not agree to a deal to abandon its nuclear weapons program, stop production of ballistic missiles and withdraw support for proxy groups such as Hamas and Hezbollah. After that, the US and Israel started bombing.
After amassing massive military forces in the region, Trump sat with top advisers at his Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida on Friday night to monitor the attack’s progress with immediate updates.
In Washington, Vice President J.D. Vance, Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard and other senior administration officials gathered in the White House Situation Room and joined Trump on a conference line to follow the bombing in real-time, according to a source familiar with the matter.
Khamenei’s assassination has turned the situation into a major conflict, but analysts warn it could spiral out of Trump’s control.
“What’s going to happen has happened and the US has to go all the way to regime change. The problem is — you can’t do that without putting troops on the ground,” said Mohammad Hafez, a professor at the Naval Postgraduate School.
He also said that Iran’s counter-attacks targeting the United States’ regional allies Bahrain, United Arab Emirates, Qatar, etc. show that the regime wants to respond more aggressively than the response to the US attack last year.
“The Iranian regime’s strategy would be to create a regional conflict that would affect the global economy and the US economy—and that would not bode well for Trump,” said Hafez, an analyst of Islamic political violence and Middle East politics.
“This could lead to a deep stalemate”.
The protracted conflict in the Middle East could also affect Trump’s other regional priorities, such as rebuilding Gaza or strengthening ties with Saudi Arabia.
It could also alienate his supporters within the United States—especially at a time when he is losing support as president amid voter anger over the cost of living and domestic issues.
image source, EPA/Shutterstock
Several senior administration officials in recent weeks have expressed concern about a major military operation in Iran, said a former senior Trump administration official who remains close to his party and briefed on the internal policymaking process.
Behind those divisions, Trump has publicly threatened to attack Iran and ordered the largest US military buildup in the Middle East since the 2003 invasion of Iraq.
Trump expressed confidence about his mission on Saturday, ending weeks of speculation about the decision to operate. But he also delivered conflicting messages, raising new questions about America’s war aims.
“I can take the whole thing long-term if I want to, and I can do it in two or three days if I want to — and maintain the threat of future attacks,” Trump told US news outlet Axios.
He later said on social media, “Heavy and accurate bombardment… will continue uninterrupted throughout the week or as long as necessary”.
The comments reinforce critics’ assertions that Trump’s foreign policy style is lax and less interested in laying the groundwork to win over lawmakers and public opinion before launching military strikes.
And according to the president’s allies and supporters, this same unconventional approach has brought him some successes—including a ceasefire in Gaza and an increase in Europe’s financial commitment to NATO.
image source, Los Angeles Times via Getty Images
Trump has made little effort to present to the public in advance a detailed argument for why it is in the American interest to go to war against Iran. The president could have made his arguments in last week’s State of the Union address, but he didn’t.
The President launched military operations without first obtaining Congressional approval. But on Saturday, a majority of Republicans supported the measure.
“Iran is facing harsh consequences for its evil actions,” House Speaker Mike Johnson said in a statement, adding that “President Trump and the administration have made every effort to find peaceful and diplomatic solutions in response to the Iranian regime’s long-standing nuclear ambitions and development, terrorism and killing of Americans, even its own people.”
But the lack of coordination with Congress has angered Democrats opposed to US strikes and some members of Trump’s party.
“Donald Trump is dragging the United States into a war the American people do not want,” former vice-president and 2024 Democratic nominee Kamala Harris said in a statement. “The lives of our troops are being put at risk in this war of Trump’s own choosing,” he added.
Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer said the administration had not provided Congress and the American people with “essential information about the scope and immediacy of the threat.”
“President Trump reacting incoherently and risking a broader conflict—that’s not a sustainable strategy,” he said.
The sharp reaction from Democrats on Saturday signaled that Trump may also face a political battle at home amid a new war in the Middle East, ahead of November’s crucial midterm elections when primary voting opens.
House Democrats are meeting Sunday evening to determine their response to the military operation, two sources familiar with the matter said.
House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries said Democrats will resume efforts next week to vote on a proposal to limit Trump’s war powers on Iran.
“It’s easy to arrest the leader of another country like Venezuela, but what do you do in the next few days?” A senior aide to House Democrats said the administration “has not articulated a strategy or a goal,” adding.
Meanwhile, Trump told NBC earlier on Saturday about Iran, “At some point they’re going to call me and ask who I like (as leader). I’m just kidding.”
Just as those midterm elections in November will be crucial in determining what Trump can do for the rest of his term, the decision to launch such an extraordinary military campaign in the Middle East could become even more significant in shaping his legacy, given the experience of past presidents.
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