Dn most countries around the world, fertility rates are at historically low levels. In many high-income economies, women now have an average of 1.5 to 1.8 children, well below the replacement rate of 2.1. At the same time, millions of white-collar workers have swapped their daily commute for teleworking. These two changes – the decline in the birth rate and the teleworking revolution – are generally discussed separately. But in a new working documentmy co-authors and I suggest that the ability to work from home is quietly helping to boost birth rates.
Of course, teleworking alone won’t be enough to reverse decades of population decline. But in a world where conventional pronatalist policies are as costly as they are ineffective, offering people greater flexibility over where they work appears to be one of the most promising and affordable ways to help them build the families they say they want.
Over the past fifty years, global fertility has more than halved, from around 5 children per woman to 2.25 today. In many rich countries, fertility has fallen below replacement level, and in some cases it is approaching 1.3, the level at which the population halves in two generations. At the same time, surveys show that women in rich countries continue to report that their ideal family size is slightly more than two children.
The gap between desired and actual family sizes can be attributed to several factors. Young adults continue their education longer and, once they enter the world of work, they face a precarious job market and high housing costs. Many people now delay their union and their plans to have children until their thirties or forties, thus coming up against biological limits.
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