After establishing a ceasefire in Lebanon, US President Joe Biden expressed hope for a similar deal to resolve the ongoing crisis in Gaza. The officials of his administration have also announced to take initiatives for this purpose. But experts see the idea as premature. Analysts have made it clear that the path to resolving the Gaza crisis is much more difficult than that of Lebanon. American media New York Times reported this news.
The ceasefire in Lebanon was made possible in part by Hezbollah's weakened position. A series of assassinations and battlefield defeats have seen them lose their bargaining power. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, on the other hand, was able to agree to the Lebanon Accord, as it did not have much impact on his domestic politics.
Conciliation in Gaza is more difficult. Because Hamas is still holding about 100 hostages. This is a big advantage for them, helping their chief negotiator, Khalil al-Haya, to maintain a tough stance. On the other hand, for Netanyahu, a compromise with Hamas would mean putting his coalition government at risk.
Many in Netanyahu's right-wing coalition want Jewish settlements in Gaza after the war. They have threatened to leave the coalition if Hamas is not completely defeated. Netanyahu was under no such pressure on the Lebanon issue, although his supporters were concerned about the long-term threat posed by Hezbollah.
While announcing the deal in Lebanon, President Biden said he also expects progress on the Gaza issue. In a message on social media Wednesday, Biden pledged new efforts to resolve Gaza. Netanyahu sees the Lebanese ceasefire as an opportunity to isolate Hamas. He said, without the support of Hezbollah, Hamas is alone. We will increase the pressure on Hamas and realize our sacred goal, the release of the hostages.
But Palestinian analysts say, Hamas will not give up so easily. They are trying to maintain their position in Gaza despite many adversities. Since the death of Yahya Sinwar, Hamas has been governed under a five-member governing council, which has maintained Sinwar's views against compromise.
Hamas reiterated its original demand in a statement on Wednesday, saying Israel must withdraw permanently from Gaza. Palestinian political analyst Mukhaimer Abusada said the Lebanese ceasefire does not appear to have any impact on Gaza. There is no light here, only a tunnel of darkness.
A permanent solution to Gaza would require Netanyahu to outline a post-war plan, which he has been avoiding. Such a plan may create conflict of priorities between its domestic and foreign partners.
Saudi Arabia wants to normalize relations with Israel if they agree to establish a Palestinian state in Gaza and the West Bank. But Netanyahu's allies oppose a Palestinian state. A deal with Saudi Arabia could give Netanyahu a major diplomatic breakthrough in his country. But the collapse of his coalition could affect his domestic power and further expose him to ongoing corruption cases.
Israeli analyst Mazal Mualem believes that Netanyahu is a master at stalling. He said Netanyahu always wants to buy time and handle the situation. Yesterday he bought time until the end of the Biden administration.
