The real victory is not military but political. Getting it right in defining what objectives are being pursued and then achieving them is the true success of someone who embarks on a war. Starting it without defining victory, on the other hand, is a guarantee of failure. This has happened to the United States in the last wars it has fought in Iraq and Afghanistan, and this can happen again in Iran, if we look at Donald Trump’s contradictory statements.
They are many and confusing their definitions of victory. The biggest and most unlikely is the overthrow of the regime, the installation of a like-minded government and the display of political success that his predecessors in the Middle East did not achieve with their peace plans, thanks to the unlimited use of force and their disdain for diplomacy. It would require putting troops on the ground in large numbers to occupy the entire country, in a repetition of previous wars that ended like the rosary of dawn.
It won’t happen, because even Trump knows it’s a delusion of grandeur. He needs something more modest and practical that will allow him to declare victory and leave the matter in Netanyahu’s hands. could serve the assassination of Khamenei and the military leadership, and even the destruction of the naval and air combat fleets, but it missed the opportunity, which the Iranian regime took advantage of to escalate regionally, close the Strait of Hormuz and spread panic in the Gulf countries.
The war has thus entered a phase of global economic erosion, with which Iran intends to put the White House on the ropes ahead of the midterm elections. To avoid this, Trump should quickly open the strategic maritime passage to oil tanker traffic with an operation that is difficult to execute, despite the presidential bravado. Even so, to feel like a winner in this uncertain contest, one should also get hold of the 400 kilograms of 60% enriched uranium still in the hands of the regime, apparently distributed in underground hiding places. Although they are not enough for an atomic weapon, they can serve as dirty bombs in the hands of terrorist groups that usually proliferate with this type of war.
The regime is cornered. It will recover little or nothing of the lost regional power. It will not be able to rebuild its naval and air forces or its enormous missile arsenal, much less its nuclear program. Now it is in its best interest to resist with its highest bets, despite the risk posed by expanding the adversary coalition with its offensive against neighboring Arab countries. Their objective is to sit down and negotiate a ceasefire with the United States under good conditions, before their repressive control over the population gets out of hand and begins to collapse. It’s what you’re looking for the election of Mojtaba Khamenei as the new guide of the revolution, an unequivocal sign of its hardening. According to Iranian-American political scientist Vali Nasr, it will demand international guarantees from Russia and China, economic compensation for the destruction suffered, lifting of sanctions and even some kind of nuclear deal like the one that was being discussed in the twice-interrupted conversations. That is, Tehran wants to negotiate like Ukraine, instead of being imposed like Venezuela.
The Netanyahu It is enough for him to continue chaining military victories to achieve his objective, which is to win the next elections, expand his majority to acquire greater margins of action and obstruct the action of justice for the corruption cases in which he is accused. While keep Trump in check, will be able to continue widening and deepening hegemony over the region and even the occupation of territories, without relaxing military pressure on Gaza, the West Bank, Syria and Lebanon, even in the event that a ceasefire with Iran takes place.
Peace and stability do not enter into their calculations. As Machiavelli advises, he would rather be feared than loved. The Abraham Accords to establish relations with Saudi Arabia they can expect, and especially the recognition of the hated and essential Palestinian State, which the Saudis demand and everyone demands, at least in lip service. will also suffer the Peace Board that must deal with Gaza, from which it follows that the complete Israeli military withdrawal and the Palestinian Administration of the Strip are not in sight.
Victory for Netanayhu is a paradox, since it means prolonging the war as long as necessary, under the cynical formula of grass cutting that each occupied territory demands when the grass of revolt grows excessively. The deficient ideas of victory that are handled between Tehran and Washington are of the same order, since they do not lead to the just and stable order that authentic peace demands or the freedom that Iranians deserve. With false victories the seeds of future wars are sown.
To read more:
https://elpais.com/opinion/2026-03-15/falsas-victorias-futuras-guerras.html
