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Various political parties and candidates are currently campaigning for the coming parliamentary elections of Bangladesh. After the last three national elections of the country were conducted in a very one-sided manner, there is a lot of curiosity among the common people about this election and its results.
Before the elections, many types of surveys are also being conducted by various organizations or political organizations to understand the state of the polling ground.
Some of these polls show that a large portion of voters are still undecided about who they will vote for in the next election.
Political scientists and political analysts say that swing voters play a major role in winning and losing elections in Bangladesh.
That is, those voters who do not express their inclination or allegiance to any particular political party and vote with all things in mind at the time of election.
Political scientist Professor Dilara Chowdhury told BBC Bangla, “Swing voters do not have a strong support for any particular party. But swing voters again influence the outcome of the vote greatly”.
The latest updated information of the Bangladesh Election Commission says that the current voters in the country are 12 crore 76 lakh. Among these voters, more than four crore voters are youth. Who will vote for the first time.
Analysts believe that a large part of these young voters are wavering. They are also considered as swing voters in the upcoming national elections of Bangladesh.
On the other hand, Awami League is also unable to participate in the February 12th election, which has been banned. That is why political analysts think that Awami League voters will be ‘swing voters’ in the next election.
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What is a swing voter? Why is it called ‘swing’?
The concept of swing voter is not very popular in Bangladesh. However, the concept of swing voter has been popular in different countries of the world including the United States and the United Kingdom.
In the nineteenth and early twentieth centuries in Europe and the United States, when ‘party’ permanent vote banks were strong, most people voted for the same party in every election of their lives.
Then due to various reasons, a significant number of voters tend to move away from their supported party and vote for other party. Political scientists refer to these voters as swing voters.
Political scientist Dilara Chowdhury told BBC Bangla, “Swing voters are one time they go this way, another time they go that way. These voters are called swing voters because their position oscillates like a swing”.
Elections in the United States have swing states based on the location of these swing voters and elsewhere.
Most of the time, the votes of those swing states play an important role in winning or losing elections.
Professor KM Mohiuddin of Jahangirnagar University’s Department of Government and Politics told BBC Bangla, “Many people are not politically confirmed who they will actually vote for. That’s why the concept of swing voter is very important in a multi-party democratic system.”
He believes that swing voters do not decide in advance who they will vote for. Swing voters vote by thinking before they vote.
“Before voting on the election day, he will think about who he will vote for. He will be safe if he votes for him. This is one of the characteristics of swing voters,” said Mr. Mohiuddin
There have been many studies in political science about swing voters. At one time these voters were thought to be politically ignorant. But some studies have shown that these voters wait until the last minute and then decide to vote.
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Who are the swing voters of Bangladesh?
The last participatory and acceptable parliamentary election in Bangladesh was the 9th parliamentary election in 2008.
Awami League and BNP were the two main rivals in the election held under the caretaker government supported by the army.
In that election, Awami League-led alliance got 48 percent and BNP-Jamaat-led alliance got 33 percent votes. In the previous election, the vote share of these two alliances was almost equal.
That is, in the 2001 elections, the four-party alliance led by BNP got 40.97 percent of the votes. In contrast, Awami League got 40.13 percent votes.
In this election of the Eighth Parliament, the difference in the vote rate of the two rival parties or alliances is very small, but the difference in the number of seats of the two parties was huge. In this election BNP Jamaat alliance won 216 seats. On the contrary, despite getting almost equal number of votes, the number of seats of Awami League was 62.
Earlier, in 1996 and 1991 elections held alone without alliance, the vote rate of Awami League and BNP was seen to fluctuate between 30 and 37 percent.
Apart from this, the support of Jamaat-e-Islami and Jatiya Party among the rest of the voters was on average 10 to 12 percent. However, these parties did not have the ability to go to power alone.
Professor KM Mohiuddin believes that the support of the two major parties in Bangladesh was close at different times. Later, swing voters supported each party in each election for various issue-based reasons. That is why once Awami League won, BNP would form the government in the next election.
Analysts say that many of the 1.3 million voters in Bangladesh have not yet decided who they will vote for in the next election.
In some polls, the number of these voters has been seen from 43 percent to 49 percent. Those who are still undecided who they will actually vote for in the future.
On the other hand, after the fall of the Awami League government through a mass coup, the party’s political activities have also been banned. As a result, they are not participating in the next election.
Political scientist Professor Dilara Chowdhury told BBC Bangla, “We are thinking of those who were voters of Awami League as swing voters as they are not part of Awami League in this election”.
Why are they considered important now?
After winning the Ninth National Assembly elections in 2008, the caretaker government system was abolished by amending the constitution in 2011.
As a result, three elections of the National Assembly were held from 2014 to 2024. BNP alliance participated in one of these three elections but that election was highly questionable. The remaining two elections were also one-sided and questionable.
That is why a large part of the voters of Bangladesh could not vote in that election or did not show interest in voting.
That is why after the fall of the Sheikh Hasina government, the interest of the voters has increased a lot around the election of 12th February, especially the political parties. A large part of those voters are young people.
According to the data of the Election Commission, by January 5, 2026, the number of voters aged 18 to 37 years in the country will be 5 crore 56 lakh 53 thousand 176, which is 43.56 percent of the total voters.
Political scientist Professor Dilara Chowdhury feels, “These young voters will be the game changer of the elections in the upcoming elections. They will greatly influence the outcome of the elections. The people they vote for are more likely to win the majority”.
On the other hand, in non-Awami League elections, the party’s support group or their voters are also considered to be an important factor.
The results of past elections in Bangladesh show that this number was around 30 percent on average at one time, but that number has changed slightly since the popular uprising.
Professor KM Mohiuddin was saying, “The number of swing voters has increased in our country due to the non-election of the Awami League. As a result, those who can bring these swing voters to their side will benefit in the election.”
According to him, Awami League top leaders staying outside the country can influence party voters in different ways. However, voters can go beyond those guidelines and vote according to their regional preferences.
https://www.bbc.com/bengali/articles/cx2wy2jnd1lo?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
