The current situation in Syria is changing rapidly. The issue has created a major crisis for the country's Bashar al-Assad government. Recently, the rebels, especially the Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), captured two major cities in just one week. They are now moving towards the city of Homs. Strategically, the city is at the heart of the link between the Syrian capital Damascus and pro-Assad areas in the west.
Homs is a very important city for Syria, the BBC reported on Friday. Because the city lies between the stronghold of Assad family supporters in the west of the country and the route to the capital Damascus in the south. So capturing Homs would be a major strategic victory for the rebels. This rebel advance could lead to the fall of Assad.
HTS leader Abu Mohammad al-Golani confirmed in an interview that their goal is to topple the Assad regime.
Meanwhile, the BBC reports that the Syrian army is not in a very good condition. Soldiers have long been frustrated by low pay and poor equipment. Although President Bashar al-Assad has ordered a 50 percent increase in army pay, this has not been enough to change the situation.
It should be noted that Assad's two main allies, Russia and Iran, have played an important role in the past in sustaining his regime. Meanwhile, Russia is supporting Assad in order to protect its naval base located in the Syrian coastal city of Tartus. However, Russia's military power has been damaged by the war in Ukraine. As a result, their presence in Syria may be weakened in the current situation.
Iran, on the other hand, has provided military support to Assad in the past, but is currently unwilling to engage in direct conflict. Because the Iran-backed Hezbollah guerrillas have become much weaker than before in the war with Israel.
One of the reasons for the survival of the Assad regime was the lack of unity among the rebel groups. HTS Turkish-backed Syrian National Army and Kurdish-led forces are each working with different goals. Even the Islamic State (IS) may take advantage of this instability to try to rebuild its power.
Assad still enjoys the support of some minority groups. Especially his own Alawite sect, who are terrified of losing power to jihadists like HTS.
According to analysts, the future of Syria depends mainly on the decisions of major international powers such as Russia, Iran and Turkey. In the past, they reached agreements in various conflict zones in Syria. But recent unexpected circumstances may force them to rethink.
