The US election is just one day away. The gap between the two candidates in opinion polls is negligible. So presumably, whether Donald Trump or Kamala Harris wins, there will be very little change in the vote. Either of the two could be ahead by two or three points.
The BBC analyzed 10 reasons why Harris or Trump could win.
If Donald Trump is re-elected, he will be the first former US president in 130 years to be defeated. Five reasons for Trump's victory have been highlighted with the potential to create such history.
1. He is not in power
The most important issue of this election is the economy. While unemployment appears to be low and the stock market is booming, most Americans say they struggle with high prices every day.
Post-coronavirus inflation has soared to its highest level since the 1970s that it was Trump's main trump card in the election campaign. Inflation is what gives Trump the opportunity to ask, 'Are you better off now than you were four years ago?'
In 2024, voters around the world have thrown out incumbents several times. Especially because of the rising cost of living post-corona. US voters also seem eager for change. Only a quarter of Americans say they are satisfied with the direction the country is going.
Kamala Harris has tried to become a candidate for so-called change, but she is struggling to distance herself from the unpopular Joe Biden as vice president.
2. Trump's steadfast image even in difficult times
Despite the January 6, 2021 riots at the US Capitol, a series of indictments and unprecedented criminal convictions, Trump's approval rating has remained stable at 40 percent or higher throughout the year.
Democrats and activists in the 'Never-Trump' camp say he is unfit for the White House. And most Republicans agree with Trump that he is a victim of political vendetta. This perception on both sides is so entrenched that Trump now needs to garner substantial support from the segment of undecided voters who have no such entrenched views of him.
3. Illegal immigration issue
In addition to economic conditions, voters often determine the outcome of elections based on emotion or weakness. The immigration issue may no longer work, Democrats hope. And Trump is betting that he will come back to power to solve the immigration problem.
The number of extrajudicial killings at the border has reached record levels under Biden. Migration numbers to states far from the border have also had an impact. In this context, polls show that voters trust Trump more on immigration. Trump's popularity among Latinos is also higher than ever.
4. Support for black and Hispanic men
Democrats have long drawn more support from Hispanic and black voters. But this time the wind has changed. Recent polls show Republican candidate Donald Trump gaining more support among Hispanic males and black voters.
A Reuters/Ipsos poll found Trump is getting more support from Hispanic men than ever before. One Hispanic voter in New Jersey said he respects Trump's career as a businessman and has decided to vote for him.
The number of Hispanic voters in the United States is growing rapidly. Hispanic voters have overwhelmingly supported Democrats in most presidential elections since the 1970s. However, in this year's election, the Republican candidate Trump received significant support from them.
5. Trust in Trump for peace in the world
Trump's critics say he is weakening America's alliances by cozying up to authoritarian leaders. But the former president considers his policy-making flair to be his strength. In this election campaign, Trump also mentioned that no major war started during his stay in the White House.
Many Americans are angry that billions of dollars have been sent from the US to fight wars in Ukraine and Israel, and see America as weak under Biden. Most voters, especially men, see Trump as a stronger leader than Harris.
If Kamala Harris wins this election, she will become the first woman and Indian American president in the history of the United States. This Democrat is more qualified than Trump. The BBC cited the reasons for his victory:
1. He is not Trump
Trump remains a polarizing figure in American politics, even though he is ahead in many ways. In 2020, he won a record number of votes for a Republican candidate. But lost because another 7 million Americans supported Biden.
This time, Harris is expressing fears about Trump's return. He called him a 'fascist' and a threat to democracy. He has vowed to take a different path, eschewing Trump's dramatic feats and confrontational path.
A July Reuters/Ipsos poll found that four in five Americans think the country is spiraling out of control. Kamala Harris hopes voters, especially moderate Republicans and independents, will see her as a viable candidate to restore stability.
2. He is not Biden either
Democrats were almost knocked out of the field of competition in this election when the elder Biden was caught by Trump in the US presidential debate. Kamala became the leader of the Democrats at that time. After he arrived, Republicans thought that Biden's unpopular policies would be covered by Kamala. However, Kamala broke that mistake in the election campaign.
United to defeat Trump, the party quickly campaigned on Kamala and made quite a splash. There was controversy over Biden's age, which Kamala did not. Now the electoral field is reversed. Trump is now the oldest person in the race.
3. She is a champion of women's rights
This is the first presidential election since the US Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade and the constitutional right to abortion. Voters concerned about protecting abortion rights strongly support orange. Past elections have shown—especially the 2022 midterm elections—that abortion can be one of the key issues in US elections and influence the outcome.
This time, voters in 10 states, including swing state Arizona, were asked about restoring abortion rights. Most of the voters voted in favor of women's abortion. As a result, Kamala is expected to get these voters on their ballot.
In addition, if elected, she will be the first female president in the history of the United States. Ultimately, he will attract women voters to his ballot.
4. His voter turnout is likely to be high
Younger college students and older adults are more likely to vote for Kamala Harris. A New York Times/Sienna poll showed Trump leading by a wide margin among those who were registered but did not vote in 2020. It remains to be seen whether they will appear this time or not.
5. Huge collection and spending of money for elections
It's no secret that American elections are expensive, and the 2024 election is on track to be the most expensive yet. Orange is at the top in spending this time.
According to a recent analysis by the Financial Times, Trump has raised more funds in the entire period through January 2023 than Harris has since running in July. Similarly, Harris has spent twice as much as Trump on campaigning and advertising.
This cost of his can be useful to attract the voters of swing states. Voters may vote for Harris there because of the impact of the ad.
