The ongoing stress on the economy and the weakness of the fiscal system have put a major strain on one of the main sources of revenue to fund government spending. Its impact is evident in revenue collection. Due to this, the National Board of Revenue (NBR) is facing a big deficit in the middle of the financial year. In the first six months (July-December) of the current fiscal year 2025-26, revenue collection has fallen by about Tk 46 thousand crore compared to the target.
A senior official of NBR said that the revenue collection has not reached the expected level due to the slow pace of overall economic activity. However, towards the end of the fiscal year, the pressure of import and tax payment increases. He also said that initiatives have been taken to expand the scope of tax, increase tax compliance and strengthen automation to increase the income as per the target.
According to NBR, the total revenue collected in six months is Tk 1 lakh 85 thousand 225 crore. But at the same time the target was set at 2 lakh 31 thousand 205 crore 37 lakh taka. As a result, the deficit figure stands at 45 thousand 980 crore 37 lakh taka, which is about 19.88 percent less than the target. But the whole picture is not quite static. There has also been some growth in revenue collection as compared to the same period of the previous financial year. 1 lakh 62 thousand 209 crore 12 lakh taka was collected during July-December of the financial year 2024-25. As such, the ongoing flow of revenue is still in the growth trend. That is, the growth has been 14.19 percent during this period.
According to economists, even this growth is not enough to meet the target. Revenue collection is not as expected due to slowdown in overall economic activity, limited spread of revenue and structural weakness in revenue administration. Also, the gap with reality has become more evident as the revenue target has been raised in one stroke mid-way through the fiscal year. However, the people concerned feel that the post-election pick-up in investment and business activity will lead to some acceleration in revenue collection.
NBR’s revenue target at the beginning of the current financial year was Tk 4 lakh 99 thousand crore. Later, on November 10, the Budget Monitoring and Resources Committee increased it to Tk 5 lakh 54 thousand crores. Achieving these additional targets is now a major challenge for NBR.
Meanwhile, the picture of fiscal deficit is clear in three major sectors. In six months, 70 thousand 491 crore 24 lakh rupees have been collected from VAT, while the target was 80 thousand 799 crore rupees. As a result, the deficit in VAT stands at 10 thousand 307 crore 76 lakh taka. In the income tax sector, 61 thousand 873 crore 20 lakh taka has been collected, compared to the target, the deficit is 23 thousand 532 crore 32 lakh taka. In the customs sector, against the target of 65 thousand 85 million taka, 52 thousand 860 crore 56 lakh taka has been collected, the deficit has been 12 thousand 140 crore 29 lakh taka.
In this regard, the executive director of the private research institute CPD. Fahmida Khatun told Ajker newspaper that there are structural problems in the revenue system for a long time. Effective taxpayers are less than the taxable population, administrative efficiency and technical capacity are also limited. Tax collections are directly impacted by rising business costs and falling investment. According to him, not short-term initiatives are needed to increase revenue, but rather institutional reform of NBR, strengthening automation and effective measures to curb tax evasion.
