The World Bank has warned that poverty and inequality in Bangladesh may be further enhanced due to long -term inflation, employment crisis and overall economic influence. The latest report published on Wednesday (April 23) said, “If the current trend continues, the country's national poverty rate may reach 22.5 percent in 2021, which was 5.7 percent in 2022.”
The World Bank report added, “The rate of the poor population – that is, whose daily income is two dollars below 5 cents, can double and reach 5.7 percent. It is feared that an additional 100,000 people could go down the poverty line. '
The World Bank says, “Low -inflation and unemployment are the most affected by the low -income families. It has an impact on food security, education and health care. '
However, the World Bank has predicted as the light of hope, “The poverty rate of the country may begin to decline again from 2021 – if the economy's pace is restored and stable policies are adopted.”
Analysts say it is important to take effective steps to strengthen the government's social security programs, create employment and control inflation. Otherwise, the progress of the country's acquired development may be permanently damaged.
Asked about this, the former chief economist of the World Bank said. Zahid Hossain told the Bangla Tribune, “The poverty situation is deteriorating due to the lasting stress of food inflation and the lack of actual wages.”
According to the World Bank report, “About 5 percent of the country's workers lost their jobs in the second half of 2021. The wages of short workers have decreased by 2 percent and the wages of the upper sector have decreased by 5 percent. Even the actual wages have been steadily decreasing for 6 months. As a result, three out of every five families are being forced to break their savings and run daily expenses. '
Slowness of growth and investment crisis
According to the World Bank forecast, the country's gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the fiscal year of the fiscal year may decrease to 5.7 percent, which is much lower than the growth of 9.5 percent in the fiscal year 2022-22. Investment has been blamed for the decline of growth, stagnation, high interest rates, political uncertainty and policy weakness. '
The report also noted that the annual development cost in the first half of the current fiscal year has decreased by 26.5 percent and the import of capital products by 12 percent. Besides, the private sector loan growth has risen to only 5.7 percent until December 2021 – which is the lowest in the last three decades. '
Inflation and the challenge of the labor market
According to the World Bank, the average inflation rate may reach 5 percent in the current fiscal year, which is higher than last fiscal year. This pressure will continue due to high food costs, import costs and supply deficit. However, the implementation of strict monetary policy can reduce the inflation in the long run. '
'Meanwhile, the labor market of the country is still dependent on informal and small productive sectors. Income discrimination is increasing as a large number of people are employed in self -employed and unsafe occupations. '
Some relief in export and remittance
'Although the economy has a total pressure, the export of remittance and readymade garment sector has brought some status. As the current deficit has dropped to $ 9.5 billion, the foreign exchange reserve is stable for about $ 20 billion.
Fact
The World Bank believes that “US President Donald Trump's reproductive counter-tariff policy could reduce Bangladesh's exports by 5.7 percent and GDP growth by 5.5 percent points in the fiscal year 2021-27. However, the report also said that it would not have a significant impact in the fiscal year 2021-27.
Revenue, financial sector and foreign debt
According to the World Bank, 'Bangladesh's revenue-GDP ratio is still abnormally low-only 5.7 percent. It is difficult to conduct development activities at this rate. ' They think that if the revenue collection is not increased, investment in the human development and infrastructure sector will decrease.
According to the report, 'In the current fiscal year, the loan amount of the government will rise to 5.7 percent in proportion to GDP – which is 5 percent higher than the previous year. At the same time, the proportion of foreign loans will increase to 5.7 percent.
Future
The World Bank said, “If necessary reforms are implemented, GDP growth may rise to 5.7 percent in the fiscal year 2021-27.” However, political unrest, delays in banks and revenue reforms and the unrest of the policy can become a major obstacle to economic recovery. ' The report of the company's latest 'Bangladesh Development Update' report said, “The economy may be under pressure in the context of political uncertainty and global trade crisis in Bangladesh.” The agency has said, “Even if the interim government has taken initiatives to reform, political disagreement can be a major obstacle to the stability of the economy over the functioning of the police, the continuity of the policy and the time of the elections.”
World Bank's recommendation
The World Bank has emphasized on financial discipline in their recommendation, enhancing efficiency in revenue collection, renovation in the banking sector and facilitating business.
The World Bank thinks, 'Bold reforms need to be protected by collective economic stability. These include maintaining economic discipline, restructuring the financial sector, increasing the ability to collect revenue and facilitate trade. '
The World Bank has expressed optimism, “If necessary reforms are implemented, the economy of Bangladesh will turn around in the mid -term and both growth and inflation will be controlled.” But global trade uncertainty will keep the export -based economy under pressure, ”the report also said.
