North Korea's supreme leader Kim Jong Un's bet on Russia for his country's economic development could boomerang if Donald Trump succeeds in ending Russian President Vladimir Putin's war in Ukraine. The information comes from a study by a South Korean government-funded think tank.
Russia has emerged as one of Kim's main supporters this year. Both countries have increased their economic and military exchanges. Officials in Washington and Seoul have also claimed that Pyongyang has recently sent troops to aid Russia on the battlefield in Ukraine after supplying Russia with ammunition. In return, Russia is helping North Korea with money and military capabilities.
A cordial alliance with Putin has given Kim an option to be less dependent on Beijing for diplomatic support. However, Pyongyang is still heavily dependent on China for its economic needs. A study led by Korea Development Institute (KDI) senior researcher Lee Jongkyu said this.
North Korea imports more than 900 goods from China, including trucks and medicines. Where it imports about 150 products including oil and gas from Russia. Russian investment in North Korea is also lower than that of China, and Russian tourism is not expected to grow significantly. Most travel in Russia is by air, not land.
KDI's Lee Jongkyu said, 'In the current situation, Russia needs conventional weapons and troops, and North Korea needs food, fuel and foreign currency. And these two issues are the result of a win-win understanding between both countries. The longer the war goes on, the stronger this relationship will be. But if this war somehow ends—as Trump has promised—then the two countries' needs for each other may change.'
North Korea's military industry could benefit from cooperation with Russia. However, the sector has limited impact on the wider economy and can hamper the growth of other sectors, Lee said. “Relying on Russia in all sectors of North Korea's economy—the approach carries high opportunity costs, not just quantitatively, but also qualitatively,” Lee said. Simply put, North Korea's real motive for rapprochement with Russia is not economic, but military. As a result, the opportunity for economic gain is somewhat limited.
Lee Sang-jun, a professor at South Korea's Kookmin University, said North Korea wants Russia's help in acquiring advanced technology to build ballistic missiles, submarines and warplanes, which Pyongyang has long failed to acquire. That means, if Trump's efforts to end the war drag on, Kim will have enough time to modernize his weapons industry and his troops will gain significant combat experience in Ukraine. Meanwhile, Russia may increase its recruitment of North Korean workers to ease its labor shortage.
Joanna Hosaniak, deputy director general of the Citizens Alliance for North Korean Human Rights, said, 'There is a very big competition between China and Russia for economic influence over Pyongyang. Russia exerts this influence through ongoing military production from North Korea. China, on the other hand, is exerting this influence in a different way.'
Meanwhile, Putin said earlier last week that his forces would continue to attack key installations in Kiev with ballistic missiles. Which indicates the will to continue the war. But it remains to be seen how he will deal with Kim's military support for Russia after Trump takes office in January.
Kim said last week that past talks with the US only confirmed Washington's “irreversible” hostility. Which suggests he has no interest in resuming direct diplomacy with Trump at this point.
Translated from BNN Bloomberg
