Moody's Ratings reduced India's GDP (GDP) growth for the calendar year 2025 in view of the US new serial fees on Wednesday to 5.5 to 6.5 per cent on Wednesday while it estimated a 6.6 per cent increase in February.
The rating agency, in its report on its fee and trade unrest, said that the trump fee will affect global trade activities. These fees will reduce the demand for regional exports. This will also reduce business confidence. Hence investment in Asia Pacific region will decrease. This estimate has been revised keeping in mind the basic fee of 10 per cent for other countries and the 145 per cent fee on China.
Moody's Ratings reported that the US has diversity in India's exports and will have less impact on it comparatively. It said that in this entire region (Asia Pacific), the most impact on the demand of America has been affected by electronics, machinery and equipment and food and textile industry.
The report said that the additional pressure on the economy could easily lead the US towards recession due to constant uncertainty and increasing stress in the financial market. Moody's Ratings branch Moody's Analytics also recently reduced the growth estimate of India's GDP (GDP) to 30 basis points for the calendar year 2025 to 6.1 per cent. The reason for this was that gems and jewelery, medical equipment and textile industry have been badly affected by the effects of America.
On the other hand, the United Nations Trade and Development (Anktad) has reduced the global growth estimate for the year 2025 to 2.3 per cent due to increasing trade tension, while it has said that India's growth would be 6.5 per cent due to the depletion of tremendous public spending and monetary policy.
According to Anktad's report, 'The central bank's decision to cut the interest rate for the first time in five years in this February will help domestic consumption and this will strengthen the private investment scheme.'
Anktad warned that the global growth will affect the growth of all countries and this would especially affect developing countries and weakest economies. It said that many low -income countries are facing 'crisis' due to worse external financial conditions, excessive debt and weakening domestic growth.
According to the statement, 'Anktad underlines the actual threat to economic growth, investment and development progress and this danger is more especially for weaker economies.' The Asian Development Bank has reduced India's GDP growth estimate to 6.7 per cent for FY 2025-26 in April 2025 outlook report while it was earlier 7 per cent. It said, 'The charge of America and other countries of America has raised a big risk. This can affect trade and investment and it is expected to create instability in the domestic financial market.
First Published – April 16, 2025 | 10:37 PM IST
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