Indus Waters Treaty suspended: After the killing of 26 tourists on Tuesday in Baisaran Valley of Pahalgam in Jammu and Kashmir, the Indian government took strict action against Pakistan and indus water treaty (Indus Waters Treatment) suspended with immediate effect. This decision was taken in the meeting of the Cabinet Committee on Security (CSS) chaired by Prime Minister Narendra Modi. By postponing this important treaty related to Indus and its tributaries, which is called the lifeline of Pakistan, India has in a way done a ‘water strike’ on Pakistan. Due to this, the water and electricity crisis there may deepen.
What will happen if Indus Water Treaty is postponed?
The Indus Waters Treaty was signed in Karachi on 19 September 1960 after nine years of negotiations between India and Pakistan. According to the provisions of the treaty, all the waters of the “eastern rivers” of the Indus River System—the Sutlej, the Beas and the Ravi—shall be available for India’s “unrestricted” use. At the same time, Pakistan will get water from “western rivers” – Indus, Jhelum and Chenab.
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Pakistan may yearn for every drop of water
As soon as India has control over the water of Indus and its tributaries, which are called the lifeline of Pakistan, the people there will yearn for water. According to an estimate, the fulfillment of water needs of more than 21 crore population depends on these rivers. Major cities of Pakistan such as Karachi, Lahore and Multan depend on the waters of the Indus and its tributaries. Power projects like Tarbela and Mangala of Pakistan depend on this river. Pakistan’s urban water supply may be disrupted. Power generation may be severely affected.
Agriculture will suffer the most loss
80% of Pakistan’s cultivable land (16 million hectares) depends on the waters of the Indus River system. 93% of the water received from the Indus Water Treaty is used for irrigation, without which farming is not possible there. Postponement of the Indus Water Treaty could lead to a decline in food production in Pakistan, threatening the food security of millions of people.
India has many options on Indus Water Treaty
Pradeep Kumar Saxena, who was India’s Indus Water Commissioner for more than six years and was associated with work related to the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT), said that India has many options because it comes in the upper riparian. “If the government takes the decision, it could be the first step towards ending the treaty,” Saxena told PTI.
Saxena explains that India can immediately stop sharing water flow data with Pakistan. India will no longer have any design or operational restrictions on water use of the Indus and its tributaries. Additionally, India can now also build water storage on the western rivers — Indus, Jhelum and Chenab.”
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Saxena further said India may also block inspection visits by Pakistani officials to two hydropower projects under construction in Jammu and Kashmir — the Kishanganga project on the Kishanganga tributary of the Jhelum and the Rattle project on the Chenab. He said, “India can do Reservoir Flushing on the Kishanganga project. It is a technique under which water is released from lower level outlets to remove the silt accumulated in the dam, which causes the silt to flow downstream and increases the life of the dam.”
Under the treaty, the reservoir is to be refilled after flushing in the month of August – the peak of the monsoon season. But now that the treaty has been suspended, this process can be done at any time. Saxena says, if this work is done at the time when the sowing season starts in Pakistan, it can have a serious impact, especially since a large part of Pakistan’s Punjab is dependent on the Indus and its tributaries for irrigation.
Can India unilaterally terminate the Indus Water Treaty?
The Indus Water Treaty (IWT), which has so far survived four wars between India and Pakistan, decades of cross-border terrorism and long-standing hostility between the two countries, was suspended for the first time by India on Wednesday. But a big question arises that can India unilaterally end the Indus Water Treaty? Let us understand this…
There is no exit provision in the Indus Water Treaty, meaning neither India nor Pakistan can legally terminate it unilaterally. This treaty has no expiry date, and any amendment to it is possible only with the consent of both parties.
According to a report in the Indian Express, although this treaty cannot be opted out of, it does have a dispute resolution process in place. Article IX and Appendices F and G set out the procedure for raising complaints — first before the Permanent Indus Commission, then before an impartial expert, and finally before a forum of arbitrators.
Pradeep Kumar Saxena said, “Although there is no express provision in the treaty to abrogate it, there are sufficient grounds under Article 62 of the Vienna Convention on the Law of Treaties under which such a treaty can be abrogated if there is a fundamental change in the circumstances which existed at the time of the treaty.” He also pointed out that last year India had sent a formal notice to Pakistan, seeking “review and amendment” of the treaty.
There has been no official reaction so far from Pakistan on India’s suspension of the Indus Water Treaty.
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What is Indus Water Treaty?
At the time of independence, the boundary line drawn between India and Pakistan passed directly through the middle of the Indus River Basin. As a result, India became the upper riparian and Pakistan became the lower riparian. The canals used for irrigation in Punjab, Pakistan, depended on two major projects—one at Madhopur on the Ravi River and the other at Firozpur on the Sutlej River. After independence, both these places became part of India.
Thus a dispute arose between the two countries over the use of water from existing irrigation facilities. The dispute was resolved through negotiations mediated by the International Bank of Reconstruction and Development (World Bank), and ultimately led to the Indus Water Treaty between India and Pakistan in 1960.
According to the Indus Waters Treaty, the entire water of the eastern rivers—Sutlej, Beas and Ravi—which have an average annual water flow of about 33 million acre feet (MAF), has been allocated to India for its unrestricted use. At the same time, most of the waters of the western rivers—Indus, Jhelum and Chenab—which have an average annual flow of about 135 MAF, have been allocated to Pakistan.
However, India is allowed to use the waters of western rivers for domestic needs, non-consumptive use, agricultural purposes and hydro-electric power. India has the right to generate hydropower from the western rivers without restriction, provided it adheres to the design and operation conditions set out in the treaty. The treaty also states that India can create water storage up to a maximum of 3.6 MAF on western rivers.
(With agency inputs)
First Published – April 24, 2025 | 10:54 AM IST
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