China's population will decline for the third year in a row in 2024. This East Asian superpower is now facing a growing demographic crisis. On Friday (January 17), China's National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reported that the country's population dropped by 1.39 million to 1.48 billion in the last 12 months. This decline continues as the death rate exceeds the birth rate. Qatar-based media Al Jazeera reported this news.
China's population has been declining steadily since the 1980s. However, in 2022, the death rate exceeded the birth rate for the first time. This was seen earlier in 1961, when 2 crore people died in a famine caused by the 'Great Leap Forward' programme.
Despite Beijing's various efforts to raise the birth rate, it has not been able to stem the long-term trend. NBS noted in their report, the adverse effects of the external environment are increasing. Domestic demand is low, some firms are facing problems in production and operations, and the economy is still challenged.
Beijing has taken various steps to increase the birth rate. On the one hand, efforts have been made to speed up the marriage process by labeling unmarried women as 'residuals', while on the other hand, the process of divorce and abortion has been tightened. In addition, couples are being subsidized to cover the cost of raising children.
After the end of the Covid-19 pandemic in 2023, the marriage rate increased by 12.4 percent year-on-year, which slightly increased the birth rate in some areas in the first half of 2024.
2024 was the 'year of the dragon' in China, which is traditionally known for the slight rise in birth rates in many Asian countries. But experts say the overall trend is downward.
China officially abolished its 'one child policy' in 2016. This policy was effective in population control for a long time, but it resulted in population imbalances due to cultural bias towards male children.
Although three children are allowed in 2021, the high cost of urban living, slow economic growth and high youth unemployment rates are discouraging the new generation from having children.
China's economy is expected to grow by 5 percent in 2024, meeting government forecasts, but GDP growth is expected to slow further in the coming years.
China is implementing plans to raise the mandatory retirement age to combat a demographic crisis. The age has been extended from 60 to 63 for men and from 55 to 58 for women in various occupations.
China is not the only country suffering from a demographic crisis. Japan, South Korea and Taiwan are also experiencing population declines for similar reasons. Immigration restrictions and the ban on medical facilities such as IVF for unmarried women have further compounded the problem.
