Mumbai16 hours ago
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The stock market may remain range bound in the week starting from November 24. This week, second quarter GDP data, buying and selling by foreign investors and technical factors will decide the market movement. On the last day of last week, Nifty had closed down by 124 points.
Nifty is about 200 points away from its all-time high. Whereas Sensex is also about 750 points away. In such a situation, the question in your mind will also be whether the market will reach life high this week?
Let us understand what can happen in the market this week…
Support Zone: 25,900 | 25,800 | 25,670
Support means, the level where the stock or index gets support from falling down. The price does not go down easily due to increase in purchasing here. You may get a shopping opportunity here.
Resistance Zone: 26,150 | 26,200 | 26,280
Resistance means the level where there is a hindrance in the stock or index going up. This happens due to increase in sales. New momentum may arise after crossing the resistance zone.
market direction
Next Trading Day (24 November): According to market experts, the market may open slightly down or flat. There may be a short covering bounce after this, but a weak or flat close is more likely at the end of the day.
Estimated Range: 25,900 – 26,200
Full week (24–28 November): The market is expected to remain in a range. But the market inclination is more downwards. Estimated range: May be between 25,800 – 26,400.
Where will it be closed at the end of the week?
- Below 26,000 → 55% chance
- Between 26,000–26,300 → 35% chance
- Above 26,300 → only 10% chance
What are the reasons for weakness in the market?
- FII i.e. foreign investors are continuously selling in the Indian market.
- MACD is showing bearishness on every timeframe (from 5 minutes to daily).
- On Friday, the market had risen during the day, yet did not cross the 20-SMA (26,181).
- Bulls will not gain complete control until VIX falls below 12.5.
Now 5 factors which can decide the direction of the market…
1. Second quarter GDP data: The National Statistics Office (NSO) will release the official GDP growth data for the second quarter (July-September) of the financial year 2025-26 on November 28. Economists are predicting strong Q2 numbers.
The Indian economy grew at the rate of 5.6% in the July-September quarter last year. Whereas in the first quarter of the financial year 2025-26, GDP grew by 7.8%.
2. India-US Trade Deal: Last week, Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal had said that good news is going to come soon regarding the proposed trade agreement. If this trade deal is done then 50% tariff imposed by America on India will be removed.
3. FII Activity: Foreign investors (FIIs) sold Indian stocks in November. On Friday, FIIs withdrew ₹1,766 crore. This month, sales worth Rs 13,840 crore have been made. In October, foreign investors had sold shares worth Rs 2,346 crore.
Geojit’s Chief Investment Strategist Vijayakumar said – India’s performance has been weak compared to other countries, so FIIs are selling here and investing money in markets like China.
4. Global Market: Movements in the US market affect other markets. Some impact may be visible on Indian markets also. American markets closed higher on Friday.
- The Dow Jones closed Friday at 46,245, up 493 points, or 1.08%.
- The S&P 500 index closed at 6,603, up 64 points or 0.98%.
- The Nasdaq Composite rose 195 points, or 0.88%, to 22,273.
5. Technical Factor: Explaining the technical setup of Nifty, Nilesh Jain of Centrum Broking said – Nifty is still making higher top and higher bottom. That means the trend is bullish.
It is trying to break the immediate resistance of 26,200, but profit booking is taking place at higher levels. Due to this, there is no momentum and new highs are not being made.
All momentum indicators on daily and weekly charts are still in buy mode. There will be some consolidation before the next uptrend. During this period, the range of Nifty can be 25,800 to 26,200.
Nifty closed 0.61% higher last week
Last week ended on a positive note. Nifty closed 0.61% higher at 26,068.15 and Sensex closed 0.79% higher at 85,231.92.
On Friday, the Sensex closed at 85,231 with a fall of 400 points or 0.47%. Nifty closed at 24068, down 124 points or 0.47%.
Disclaimer: This article is only for information and learning. The opinions and advice given above are of individual analysts or broking companies and not of Dainik Bhaskar. We advise investors to consult certified experts before taking any investment decision.
