Mumbai8 hours ago
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The stock market may see fluctuations this week. Domestic Economic Data, Tariff Policy, US Jobs Data, Fed Chairman Powell Speech, Manufacturing and Services PMI, ECB Interest Rate Decision, FII-DII flow and upcoming IPO will be monitored by the market.
Factors that will determine the market move in this week…
Tariff policy
At the global level, everyone's eyes will be on cases related to tariff policy of Trump administration. Because it has been a major reason for the decline in Indian equity in the last months. Last week, US President Donald Trump said that 25% tariffs on goods coming from Canada and Mexico would be applicable from March 4.
Apart from this, Trump has announced to impose additional 10% duty on goods coming from China from March 4. At the same time, there is talk of imposing 25% tariffs on goods coming from the European Union, which has increased the possibility of global trade war.
Us Jobs Data, Fed Chairman Powell Speech
The market will be eyeing US jobs data. Which includes unemployment rate for February, non-form-peols and challenger job cut data. All this data is one of the important factors to decide the interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve. Recent disappointing economic figures have already increased the expectations of rate cuts in June.
The statements of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and other Fed officials will be revealed next week. In addition to further interest rate cuts, these statements will be indicated regarding growth and job numbers.
Jerome Powell, president of the US Federal Reserve. (File photo)
Manufacturing and Services PMI, ECB Interest Rate Decision
The market will be eyeing the final data of Manufacturing and Services PMI for February of several major countries including the US, China, Japan and UK. Apart from this, there will also be a focus on the third estimates of the Euro region's December 2024 quarter GDP growth. According to preliminary estimates, GDP growth was 0.9% in Q4-2024, which was unchanged compared to the same period last year.
Apart from this, the decisions of the Monetary Policy of European Central Bank will also be monitored on 6 March. Economists hope that the central bank will further cut interest rates to focus on growth. Because they are concerned about the economic growth of the euro region following a sign of 25% tariff by Trump.
China's two sessions meeting, inflation
The market will also be eyeing the announcements made by China's Foreign Minister and heads of economic departments. This meeting will take place after the conclusion of the annual parliamentary meeting of the country, which is known as two-sessions.
The Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference will start from March 4 and the National People's Congress meeting will start from March 5. Both these sessions will end on 9 March. Apart from this, China will issue its inflation and PPI numbers for February 9 on March 9.
Domestic Economic Data
The Foreign Exchange Reserve data will be monitored for the HSBC Manufacturing PMI and Services PMI data for February on 3 and 5 March for February. According to preliminary estimates, manufacturing PMI fell from 57.7 of January to 57.1 in February, while Services PMI rose from 56.5 to 61.1 in the same period.
FII-DII फ्लो
Foreign institutional investors i.e. FII will also be an eye on the market. FII has sold shares of over Rs 22,000 crore in the cash segment last week. However, Domestic Institutional Investors i.e. DII has made up the withdrawal of FII not only last week but also in February.
DII bought shares worth Rs 22,252 crore during this week, causing total investment to Rs 64,853 crore in February. While FII sold Rs 58,988 crore during this month. According to experts, FIIs may return to India due to improvement in earnings growth and further boom in GDP data.
Initial Public Offering (IPO)
Talking about the initial public offering, no new IPO will be launched in the mainboard segment. At the same time, the IPO of NAPS Global India in the SME segment will open on March 4. The IPO of Balaji phosphates will be closed on 4 March. There will be a listing next week of Bijasan Explotch, Nucleus Office Solutions, Srinath Paper Products and Balaji Fosteets.
Sensex dropped 2.96% last week
Last week, the Sensex dropped 2,236.16 points i.e. 2.96%. The Nifty also fell by 420.35 (1.86%) points last week. At the same time, the Sensex declined by 1414 points (1.90%) on the last trading day of the previous week i.e. Friday (February 28). It closed at 73,198 levels.
The Nifty also fell 420 points (1.86%) to close at 22,124. The BSE small cap declined by 1,028 points (2.33%), it closed at 43,082 levels. The mid cap also declined by 853 points (2.16%), it closed at 38,592 levels.
