NBR reforms to raise revenue, IMF conditions moving forward—all in all, the list of reform plans is now long. Structures are being built, documents are progressing, various projects are underway. But it has no clear impression on the pace of revenue generation. The work is being done, the result is not coming. Deficits remain the same. Despite all these initiatives, the old pattern of achieving monthly or annual targets is still pushing the revenue sector.
E-Returns, e-TIN, e-Audit, IVAS, e-Invoices—these technology-driven initiatives are becoming the backbone of the future revenue administration in a series of reforms. Call center-online training has also been added to ensure the convenience of taxpayers. However, most of the implementation is still midway; Its impact on the field is limited. So technology is growing, processes are changing; But the impact of that change has not reached the mainstream of revenue generation. Revenue flows are still stuck at the same slow pace as before.
As always, NBR could not meet the revenue collection target this time. In the first four months of the current fiscal year 2025-26, 1 lakh 19 thousand 478 crores have been collected, whereas the target was 1 lakh 36 thousand 697 crores. The deficit stands at 17 thousand 219 crores or 12.60 percent. However, the growth was 15.54 percent during the same period of the previous year. Compared to that, the growth this year is positive, but the gap with the target remains as an additional pressure.
Analysts say the revenue collection will not increase unless the economy is stable and the pace of business does not pick up. In this context, M Helal Ahmed Jani, Research Fellow and Economist of Research Institute Change Initiative, told Ajker newspaper that the economy is unstable, the pace of business is slow, import-export is not increasing as expected. As a result, customs duty collection is decreasing, VAT leakage is increasing, sales concealment trend is not stopping. On top of this, the structural weakness of the tax system, narrow tax net, non-reach of tax to the informal sector, lack of efficiency in tax administration—all these are repeatedly holding back the potential for revenue growth.
Besides this fact there are some other direct reasons. Former bureaucrat and public administration expert Feroze Mia said in this context, the recent internal unrest in NBR, transfers, punitive measures – all have affected the morale of the officers. He feels that this has had an impact on the revenue collection in the field.
The latest revenue data published by NBR also indicates all this. Income tax, customs and VAT – deficit in all sectors. Out of this the highest revenue has been collected from VAT. Still the target was not achieved. 46 thousand 878 crores have been collected in four months. The target was 48 thousand 146 crores. Deficit 1 thousand 268 crores or 2.63 percent. VAT collection during the same period of last year was 37 thousand 567 crores. As a result, the growth has been 24.78 percent.
Income tax revenue is 37 thousand 849 crores. The target was 47 thousand 43 crores. The deficit is 9 thousand 194 crores or 19.54 percent. The collection during the same period of the previous year was 32 thousand 597 crores. The growth has been 16.11 percent.
34 thousand 751 crores have been collected in customs. The target was 41 thousand 507 crores. The deficit is 6 thousand 756 crores or 16.27 percent. The collection during the same period of the previous year was 33 thousand 243 crores. The growth has been 4.53 percent.
Top NBR officials say revenue collection will pick up towards the end of the year, as it has done in the past. They are insisting on increasing tax collection, prevention of tax evasion, recovery of arrears.
The main target of NBR in the current financial year was Tk 4 lakh 99 thousand crores. Later it was increased to 5 lakh 3 thousand crores. To fulfill the target, 3 lakh 83 thousand 522 crores have to be collected in the remaining eight months, which is a difficult target when compared to the reality.
The former chairman of NBR. Abdul Majeed thinks that the main reason for the revenue shortfall is the wrong setting of targets. In his words, ‘targets are given beyond the capacity of NBR, this is the beginning of the problem.’ That is, reforms, structural changes, policy changes—all are necessary; But accelerating revenue flow remains difficult without closing the gap between goals and reality.
