Arab Finance: The Monetary Policy Committee of the Egyptian Central Bank decided at its meeting on Thursday, Agreement February 20, 2025. For the Central Bank At 27.25%, 28.25% and 27.75%, respectively.
It also decided to keep the credit and discount price at 27.75%.
Some central banks in the advanced and emerging economies alike continued to gradually reduce their return prices despite the uncertainty that still surrounds the prospects for economic growth and inflation globally, while other central banks decided to follow a cautious approach in anticipation of successive global economic developments. Economic growth remains largely stable, and it is expected to continue at the current pace in the medium term, although it is not yet to levels before the Koruna.
However, these expectations are still vulnerable to a group of risks, the most important of which is the negative impact of restrictions on economic activity, the return of protective commercial policies and their impact on global trade.
With regard to inflation, the global prices of basic commodities have witnessed fluctuations in recent times, and expectations indicate the possibility of increasing their prices in the medium term, especially grain prices. However, these expectations are still at risk, including the exacerbation of geopolitical tensions and global trade disorders caused by protectionist policies.
At the local level, the initial indicators of the fourth quarter of 2024 are useful for economic activity at a faster rate than the third quarter of 2024, which recorded 3.5%, indicating the continuous recovery in economic activity. The real GDP growth came in the third quarter of 2024, which is primarily driven by the increase in the contribution of the manufacturing and transportation industry. Although the product gap estimates indicate that the real gross domestic product is still less than its maximum capacity, which supports the expected inmate for inflation in the short term, it is expected that economic activity will gradually approach its maximum capacity by the end of the fiscal year 2025/2026. With regard to the labor market, the unemployment rate decreased to 6.4% in the fourth quarter of 2024 from 6.7% in the third quarter of 2024.
As for the annual inflation, its slowdown declined during the second half of 2024 compared to the first half of the same year to settle at 24.0% in January 2025. Likewise, the annual rate of basic inflation remained stable in general during the fourth quarter of 2024, as it reached 22.6% in January 2025.
While the annual inflation rate of food commodities continued to slow down, recording 20.8% in January 2025, the annual inflation rate of non -food commodities remained stable at 25.5% on average during the year 2024, which gradually reflects the fading of the previous shocks.
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