There are only 6 days left for the US presidential election. This year's election could also be a repeat of 2020. But since President Joe Biden endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris last July, the election has shifted momentum.
Now the question is – is the United States going to get a woman president for the first time? Or is Donald Trump president in the second term?
As election day approaches, the race between the candidates and campaign camps of the two major parties in US politics is intensifying. The entire world, including US voters, is watching to see which candidate is ahead in the race to the White House.
Which candidate is ahead nationally?
Kamala Harris was announced as the Democratic nominee in late July. Since then he started election campaign. On the contrary, Donald Trump was campaigning as a Republican candidate from the beginning.
A recent poll by ABC News showed Harris leading with 48 percent support. By contrast, Donald Trump has just one percent less support
Although such polls give an indication of how popular a candidate is across the country; However, it is not appropriate to predict the outcome of the election. The main reason for this is that the President of the United States is elected through the Electoral College vote.
To win an election, a candidate must receive at least 270 out of a total of 538 Electoral College votes.
There are 50 states in the United States. Voters in most states vote for the same party year after year. But there are some states where no candidate is certain to win or lose. These are known as battlefield or swing states. These states can turn the tide of the election.
Which candidate is ahead of the swing state or swinging states?
Seven states are considered as swing states in this election. There is a glimpse of a bone-to-bone fight in them.
As of Tuesday (Oct. 29), Trump and Kamala were tied for the lead in Wisconsin, according to an ABC News poll. Trump was slightly behind in Nevada and Pennsylvania. However, Kamala Harris is slightly behind in Michigan. In addition, Trump is slightly ahead in North Carolina, Georgia and Arizona.
These seven states have 93 electoral college votes. However, the results of this survey are variable.
Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin helped Trump win in 2016. Trump won the election even though the Democratic Party was ahead in the polls in these states. In 2020, however, these states were once again won by Democratic candidate Biden. If Kamala Harris wins these three states this time, her chances of winning the election will be high.
The election campaign has seen some changes since Harris became the Democratic nominee. Sometimes he even trailed Trump by five percentage points in some states.
In Pennsylvania, Biden was trailing by four and a half percentage points at the time of his withdrawal.
Pennsylvania is a very important state in the election. Because it has the largest number of Electoral College votes among the seven swing states. That is why it is relatively easy for them to win in 270 Electoral Colleges if they win in this state.
How are survey averages calculated?
The national average of these polls is compiled by collecting data through various survey organizations. One type of survey information is released through various means such as text message, telephone call. The averages used by the BBC are part of ABC News. ABC only includes surveys that meet certain criteria; Eg: How many voters participated in the survey, when and how the survey was conducted etc.
Can you trust the surveys?
Current polls show that Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are tied in nearly every swing state. When the margin is so close, it becomes difficult to predict the winner. Polls in both 2016 and 2020 failed to accurately gauge Trump's public support. This time, survey organizations are making various changes and taking steps to solve this problem. However, even these amendments cannot fully reflect the correct picture of the vote.
Source: BBC
