President Donald Trump is on the verge of returning to the White House for a second term. His victory in several key battleground states seems to be confirmed. Trump's campaign in 2016, 2020 and 2024 has changed US politics. The US media CNN has highlighted the changes in a report analyzing data from the booth return survey.
CNN's exit poll results reveal an important trend between the 2016, 2020 and 2024 elections. Poor economic conditions pose a major problem for Vice President Kamala Harris in the 2024 election. Despite his efforts, he could not increase the support of women. Support for abortion rights, however, has grown. However, Latino men are leaning toward Trump. Compared to 2016, there is quite a difference here.
Division of male and female voters
Harris's support among women in 2024 was not higher than in 2016 or 2020. In particular, Trump maintained support among men.
Latino men's support for Trump
Support for Trump among Latino voters, especially men, has increased since 2016. In 2020, Biden received most of these votes. But in 2024 they are leaning towards Trump. However, Latina women still supported Harris. Although it is less than before.
Racial support
In 2024, Harris maintained a strong lead among black men and women. However, Trump did not have the absolute dominance he once had among white men. Harris's support among white college-educated voters increased significantly. Among college-educated white women in particular, she leads by nearly 20 points. Which is better than Biden or Clinton.
Younger Voters Leaning in Trump's Favor
In 2024, the Democrats' most reliable voter group, the young voters, has lost some support. Which poses a big challenge for the Democrats. However, there has been some change among older voters. In this case, Harris received slightly more support.
Resurgence of Trump support in rural areas
After losing some rural support in 2020, Trump is back there in full force in 2024. Cities still held by Democrats. But support in the suburbs has swung back to Trump.
Impact of economic conditions
Voters were divided on the state of the economy in 2020. Although at that time there was a coronavirus pandemic. However, in 2024, two-thirds of voters said the economy was bad. This situation worked in Trump's favor.
A feeling of falling behind
In 2020, only five percent of voters said they were worse off than before. But in 2024, nearly half of voters expressed such sentiments. This situation brings a big advantage to Trump.
Support for abortion rights
In 2016 Ro.V. The Wade decision constitutionally recognized the right of women to have an abortion in the United States. But in 2024, that right is repealed and two-thirds of voters want to keep abortion legal. However, this support was not associated with them voting against Trump. About half of voters who were pro-abortion supported Trump.
Trump's influence among moderate voters
From 2016 to 2024, moderates, liberals, and conservatives turned to the Republican Party. A majority of moderate voters again supported the Democratic candidate. But it was less than before.
Trump's popularity among voters was clear. Those who voted primarily because of opposition to the Republican Party, supported Harris.
Trump's success in attracting new voters
An important aspect of Trump's election strategy was to gain the attention of new voters. These new voters usually do not participate in the political process. Trump got more support from them in 2024 than in 2020. However, the number of first-time voters in 2024 was lower than in 2020.
Trump's victory in the 2024 election and his election tactics have signaled a shift in the course of American politics and the electoral calculus. Trump's election has brought about a more significant political turning point than in the past. Which will present a new perspective for the next election battles.
